Quarterly Outlooks & Research
Anchor documents and thematic deep dives. Each quarterly outlook establishes the macro thesis; subsequent signals track its evolution in real time.
Q2 2026: The Post-Tariff Dollar and What Comes Next
The dollar enters Q2 2026 structurally weaker than at any point since 2021. SCOTUS strikes down IEEPA tariffs. Powell-to-Warsh transition. EUR/USD toward 1.20. Gold above $5,000. The positioning framework for Q2.
Crude Awakening
WTI traces a $43 intraweek range — $119 to $77 and back to $99. DXY breaks 100 for the first time in eight months. VIX collapses from 35 to 27. Silver crashes −6.6% while BTC leads at +7.6%. The largest oil supply shock in history, absorbed in five sessions. Q2 thesis: under stress.
The Dollar's Identity Crisis
DXY rejected at 98.00 three times. Gold +1.6% to 5,186. CFTC shorts at 5-year extremes. Geneva talks advance. USD/JPY 284-pip range. Six sections covering trade policy, gold, rates, diplomacy, positioning, and risk.