The dollar enters Q2 2026 structurally weaker than at any point since 2021, but not broken. DXY has traded a 96–100 range for eight months, and positioning against the greenback is the most extreme in fourteen years. The Supreme Court's ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs removes a key source of trade policy uncertainty but introduces fiscal ambiguity.
WTI traces a $43 intraweek range — $119 to $77 and back to $99. DXY breaks 100. VIX collapses from 35 to 27. Silver −6.6%, BTC +7.6%. The largest oil shock in history, absorbed in five sessions.
FV model −2.16σ. Specs net short 105K. Six signals say buy EUR. Two say wait for the catalyst. ECB Thursday.
Three correlations inverted. DXY at 0.02σ despite a war. Oil 5.37σ but VIX fell 13.5%. Grains falling.
DXY +0.98% to 98.57 on war bid — rejected at 200-day SMA. Gold +2.0% to 5,336. Brent +7.1% on Hormuz closure.
Institutional-grade FX research, built from zero with AI-augmented intelligence systems.
G10 & EM currencies, central bank policy, gold, positioning data, and the macro-structural forces driving FX markets.
[email protected]
mufx.io