Markets are closed. This briefing is published Saturday, 28 February 2026, while FX and equity markets are shut. Prices below reflect Friday's close. Weekend-only indicators (crypto perps, offshore) are referenced where available. Monday's open will be the first live market reaction.
The United States and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran early Saturday morning. Operation Epic Fury (US) / Roaring Lion (Israel) targeted military infrastructure, IRGC command centers, missile sites, and regime leadership buildings in Tehran, Isfahan, and Qom. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf.
Friday 27 Feb Close (Last Traded Prices)
| Instrument | Fri Close | Chg | Weekend Indicator |
|---|
| Gold (perps) | 5,278 | — | Hyperliquid perps trading ~5,464 (+4.1%) |
| Brent | $72.87 | +2.9% | Perps +6.2%; analysts expect $80+ Monday |
| WTI | $67.25 | +3.18% | Strait of Hormuz closure reported |
| S&P 500 | 6,879 | −0.43% | Futures expected sharply lower Monday |
| Bitcoin | — | — | Fell 3.8% to ~$63,000 on risk-off |
| Silver (perps) | — | — | Hyperliquid perps +8% to ~$97.50 |
Regime
Active Conflict
DXY Outlook
Safe-Haven Bid ↑
Gold
War Premium ↑↑
Escalation Timeline — 28 February 2026
~02:30 EST
Trump announces "major combat operations" against Iran
Video posted to Truth Social. Operation dubbed "Epic Fury" by DoD. Stated objective: destroy missile infrastructure, prevent nuclear capability, regime change.
~03:00 EST
Israeli strikes confirmed — "Roaring Lion"
IAF reports 500 military targets struck using ~200 fighter jets. Targets include Khamenei's residence compound, presidential palace, National Security Council. Defense Minister Katz calls it a "preemptive attack." State of emergency declared in Israel.
~04:00 EST
US strikes confirmed — CENTCOM statement
Targets: Iranian missile sites, air defense systems, IRGC command and control centers. US military planning for "several days of attacks" per CNN sources. Trump tells IRGC to "lay down your arms or face certain death."
~06:00 EST
Iran retaliates — missiles fired across the Gulf
Ballistic missiles launched at Israel and US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. IRGC declares all US and Israeli assets in the region "legitimate targets." Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain struck directly. One civilian killed in Abu Dhabi. Jordan intercepted 49 drones and ballistic missiles.
~08:00 EST
Strait of Hormuz closure reported
UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reports sea vessels received closure notices. Strait handles ~20 million barrels/day (~20% of global consumption). Gulf states close airspace. Houthis announce resumption of Red Sea attacks.
~10:00 EST
Khamenei status unknown
Israeli officials claim Khamenei was "hit." Iranian FM Araghchi tells NBC that Khamenei and the president are alive "as far as I know." Satellite imagery shows Khamenei's Tehran residence destroyed. Communications cut across much of Iran.
SATURDAY
Weekend market proxies react
Gold perps on Hyperliquid surge +5% to ~$5,464. Silver perps +8% to ~$97.50. Oil perps +6.2%. Bitcoin drops 3.8% to ~$63,000 as risk-off dominates. $128B erased from crypto market cap. Traditional FX, equity, and commodity markets remain closed until Sunday evening (Asia) / Monday morning.
The strikes came hours after Oman's foreign minister reported a diplomatic "breakthrough" — Iran had reportedly agreed to zero enrichment stockpiling and full IAEA verification. The timing is significant. Whether this constitutes a failure of diplomacy or a deliberate exploitation of diplomatic cover for a military operation will be debated extensively.
Iranian Red Crescent reports over 200 killed and 700 injured in the initial wave. Iranian state media reports a strike hit a girls' primary school in Minab, southern Iran, killing at least 53 students. Saturday is the first day of the Iranian work and school week. The US military reports no American casualties as of early afternoon. OPEC+ meets Sunday; the cartel may consider a larger production increase above the planned 137,000 bpd if supply disruption materializes.
This is not a limited strike. Trump explicitly stated the objective is regime change. Netanyahu said the joint operation will last "as long as needed." US military sources told CNN the Pentagon is planning several days of attacks. Iran's IRGC has declared operations will "continue relentlessly until the enemy is decisively defeated." This language on both sides points to an extended campaign, not a one-day event.
Monday Open — Scenario Matrix
Escalation / No Ceasefire
Gold
5,400–5,600
Brent
$80–90+
DXY
98.5–99.5
S&P 500
−2% to −4%
US 10Y
3.90–3.95%
USD/JPY
152–154
Hormuz closure confirmed, multi-day strikes continue, Iran retaliates further. Oil supply at risk. Flight to safety: dollar, gold, and Treasuries all bid simultaneously. Equities sell hard. VIX above 30.
De-escalation / Ceasefire Signal
Gold
5,250–5,350
Brent
$75–80
DXY
97.8–98.2
S&P 500
−0.5% to −1.5%
US 10Y
3.98–4.02%
USD/JPY
154–156
Strikes end within 48 hours (like June 2025), Hormuz stays open, OPEC+ covers supply gap. Initial spike in oil and gold fades. Dollar rallies modestly on safe-haven flow but normalizes. Equities gap down then recover intraday.
Thesis Impact
The Q2 bearish-USD / long-gold thesis just absorbed a regime-change-level geopolitical shock. In the short term, the dollar may catch a safe-haven bid (history shows DXY typically rallies in the first days of a military conflict). This does not invalidate the structural thesis — it introduces a temporary counter-current. Gold benefits under both scenarios: safe-haven demand in escalation, inflation premium in de-escalation if oil stays elevated. The key variable is duration. A multi-week campaign changes the macro landscape entirely. A 48-hour strike normalizes within days. Watch the Strait of Hormuz — if it stays closed through Monday, oil above $80 reprices everything.
Key Watch — This Weekend and Monday
Sunday: OPEC+ meeting — production increase decision. Asian FX markets open Sunday evening EST. Monday pre-market: S&P futures, oil futures, gold futures — first traditional market reaction. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 EST (may be overshadowed). Ongoing: Strait of Hormuz status. Khamenei status. Iran retaliation scope and targets. Congressional war powers votes — both chambers expected to vote next week on resolutions to restrict military action. Key level: DXY 98.00 — the ceiling that failed four times this week. A safe-haven bid that pushes DXY above 98 and holds would be the first sign the structural bear thesis needs recalibration.
Immediate Calendar
Sun
OPEC+ Meeting — Production quota decision amid active conflict with member state Iran.
Critical
Sun PM
Asian Markets Open — First FX and futures reaction. Watch NZD, AUD, JPY, gold futures.
Critical
Mon 08:30
US Equity Futures Open — Gap risk elevated. VIX likely 25+.
Critical
Mon 10:00
ISM Manufacturing PMI — February. Will be overshadowed by war but still data.
Medium
Next Week
Congressional War Powers Votes — House and Senate resolutions to restrict Iran strike authorization.
High