Residue Lab

Experimental record: emotional residue as a machine-learning signal, May–August 2026

Statusactive
Experiments executed10
Probing programmeclosed 2026-05-30
Latest revision2026-08-18
Summary

Text written during a stressful event — a trader's messages in the middle of a market crash — differs from text written about the event afterward. The difference is here called emotional residue: traces of felt experience left in writing, usually unintentionally. The experiments documented here test whether language models can detect this residue, whether they can be trained on it, and whether the way a training corpus is collected changes what a model learns from it.

Ten experiments were run between May and August 2026. For each, numeric success criteria were fixed and recorded before execution, so a failed prediction could not be reinterpreted as a success afterward. Outcome in brief: one external finding replicated (§1.1); the central hypothesis did not survive its own controls (§1.2); two published results were retracted after internal audit (§2). Every number on this page links to the results file it is quoted from. The complete record, including all failures, is at /results.

Record summary
measurecountnote
experiments executed10May–August 2026
numeric criteria fixed before execution~25none relaxed after data without disclosure
stopping rules triggered4all four obeyed; one planned experiment cancelled by its gate
retractions2both self-issued, originals preserved unaltered
public corrections of a published headline12026-08-17, §2.2

1Findings that survived their controls

Four results stand as stated. Each entry gives the claim, the numbers, and the file the verdict is quoted from.

1.1

Emotion geometry is nearly identical across language models replicates

Anthropic reported in April 2026 that emotions are encoded as consistent directions in a model's internal activity, demonstrated on their own model, whose weights are not public. The same methodology, applied here to five openly downloadable models from three companies (Meta, Mistral, Alibaba), reproduces the result — and the five models turn out to encode emotion in nearly the same way.

86.9–91.5%accuracy identifying which of 20 emotions a text expresses, from internal activity alone (chance: 5%)
1.13×spread in valence separation across all five models 0.96–0.99stability of the geometry across model layers

The differences between companies' models are smaller than the differences between layers inside a single model. An earlier headline claiming an 18× difference between models was withdrawn on 2026-08-17 as a measurement-unit error (§2.2).

emotion-vector-bench/results/ · full page · repository
1.2

Residue is not linearly separable from style and context completed negative

A linear probe — a simple classifier reading a model's internal activity — can easily detect emotional event text. But six independent attempts failed to separate residue itself from two confounds: writing register (personal versus institutional voice) and event context. The closing audit states the result:

“Six attempts, same wall. That's not failure — it's a characterization: residue does not exist as a clean separable linear feature in these representations. It is distributed and entangled with event-presence and register.”

This finding closed the probing programme on 2026-05-30 and is the reason the programme changed instruments — first to reconstruction (§1.3), then to corpus-level experiments (§2.1, §3.1).

synthesis/results/probe-isolation-limit-2026-05-30.md · context
1.3

Reconstruction beats a facts-only baseline — on synthetic data pass · synthetic only

In artificial test worlds where the hidden emotional states are known by construction, reconstructing those states from residue outperformed a baseline given only the factual record, in three of six measured cells. All integrity checks passed, including a negative control in which worlds built with no emotional signal produced no effect.

+0.171longitudinal residue [+0.133, +0.209] +0.040longitudinal action [+0.015, +0.067] +0.028cross-sectional action [+0.007, +0.049]

Stated limit, from the report itself: the method “only wins where the structure is” — and the confirmatory run on real data was never executed.

residue-lab/PHASE1-REPORT.md · context
1.4

A residue probe outperforms surface features pre-registered pass

Distinguishing genuinely leaked text from deliberately constructed text, a residue probe was tested against a baseline using only word statistics — vocabulary, length, readability. Both thresholds were fixed before the test ran, on a held-out event.

0.980 vs 0.860probe vs baseline (AUROC: a 0–1 accuracy score; 0.5 is chance) +0.120margin; required 0.10 p = 0.005required 0.01

Carried caveat: this shows the probe beats surface features, not that it reads pure residue (§1.2).

synthesis/results/CT-chemtech-results.md · context

2Retractions and corrections

Retractions are treated as results. Original documents are never edited; the withdrawal is appended where the claim was made, so the error remains legible.

2.1

The acquisition experiment retracted twice

An experiment tested whether the way a training corpus is collected changes what a model learns from it. It reported a +4.75 percentage-point effect — which missed its own pre-registered bar of 5.0 by 0.25, and was therefore recorded as suggestive rather than established:

“This is recorded exactly as the rule requires, and is the reason the rule existed: read after the fact, 4.75 pp is trivially arguable into a win.”

Audit then found two independent defects. First, a grading error: the scorer accepted a bare year where a full date was required, and one arm's corpus taught models to emit bare years — with the affected questions removed, the effect became −0.58 pp, indistinguishable from zero. Second, a data-integrity error: only 44.6% of the facts being tested existed in both training corpora, so the comparison could not have measured what it claimed. Retracted 2026-08-06 and 2026-08-08.

residue-lab/R2/RESULTS.md §1, §10–11 · full record
2.2

The “18× valence spread” headline withdrawn

The published headline of the emotion-geometry work (§1.1) claimed one model family organized emotion 18× more cleanly than another. The number was a measurement-unit error: it was computed on vectors whose raw sizes differ — for uninteresting architectural reasons — by an order of magnitude between models, so it measured vector size, not emotional organization.

r = 0.9896correlation of the “finding” with raw vector size 18.58× → 1.13×the spread, before and after unit correction

Withdrawn 2026-08-17 on this site and in the repository, with the original struck through in place. The corrected finding — near-identical geometry across companies and scales — is the stronger claim.

3Built, not yet validated

Two assets exist whose decisive tests have not been run. They are listed as assets, not results.

3.1

A sealed-corpus evaluation set built · 0 of 5 gates

After the retraction in §2.1, the measurement instrument was rebuilt before any further experiment. Fifty independent agents each read the primary documents of one real-world event with no internet access, recorded their understanding first, then wrote test questions with the supporting evidence quoted verbatim and the source document named.

1,265questions; counts reproduced directly from the data files 780require combining two or more documents (61.7%) 0 / 5validation gates run

The training experiment it was built for exceeds the memory limits of the available hardware; the evaluation set stands on its own, ungated.

residue-lab/R3/eval/authored/ · context
3.2

Likelihood-ratio gates on real residue borderline · unfinished

A forensic-style test of residue on real event data reached calibration exactly on its own bar — error 0.103 against a limit of 0.10, passing about half of random data splits — and the decisive held-out event was never run. These figures were reported during working sessions; no committed results file exists, so they are labelled reported, not established.

gate machinery on disk · no results artifact · context

4Programme description

The programme's original hypothesis: emotional residue is a trainable signal — a model could gather it from a new event, train on it, and verify its own results against criteria fixed in advance. The record revised the hypothesis in three steps. Probing (May) established that the signal exists but cannot be isolated by linear methods (§1.2), and a small training run moved the capability by +0.004 — effectively nothing — which cancelled the planned autonomous-loop experiment by its own entry condition. Reconstruction (June) outperformed its baseline only on synthetic data (§1.3). Corpus-level experiments (August) produced one double retraction (§2.1) and one rebuilt instrument awaiting validation (§3.1).

Methods common to all experiments: numeric success criteria recorded before execution; controls designed to break the claim rather than support it; stopping rules stated in advance and followed; negative and ambiguous results published with the same prominence as positive ones. All computation was local, on consumer hardware (Apple M-series, 24 GB memory, models up to 8 billion parameters).

Chronology
periodphasedisposition
2026-02 – 03muFX (FX research), cipher (macro data pipeline)archived, unmaintained
2026-03 – 04floor36 research journal; trading-agent experimentspreserved at /floor36/
2026-05probing programme; emotion-vector-benchclosed by §1.2; bench published
2026-06reconstruction (R1)synthetic pass; real-data run not executed
2026-08corpus experiments (R2, R3)R2 retracted; R3 instrument built, ungated

Methodology in depth  ·  Intellectual lineage  ·  Complete experimental record

5Document history

2026-08-18
Site restructured: mufx.io now fronts a personal landing page; this overview moved from / to /lab with contents unchanged.
2026-08-17
Site rebuilt around the experimental record. The previous version described four experiments as ready to run; all four had executed or been cancelled months earlier. Added: the complete record and emotion-vector-bench. The 18× headline withdrawn here and in the repository the same day. Sitemap and robots rebuilt.
2026-05-29
Previous revision: programme framing and experiment designs, written before execution. Preserved in version control.
2026-02 – 04
Predecessor projects (muFX, cipher, floor36) archived in place; see chronology, §4.